As a Six Sigma professional responsible for managing projects, have you ever been asked the following questions? When do you reasonably expect to complete your project?
Which activities on the critical path should you focus your attention on to meet the schedule? Can you tell me with a 95 percent confidence level how much the project will cost?
These are tough questions that require the discipline and quantitative rigor that is expected of Six Sigma practitioners. Fortunately, there is a powerful tool in the Six Sigma toolbox to help provide answers.
It is called the beta distribution also known as three-point estimationa continuous probability distribution defined on the interval 0 and 1. During the late s, when the U.
The PERT measured three values for time estimates, cost estimates and work effort estimates i.
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Three-Point Estimation Technique The creation of three-point estimates begins with a three-step process: Record the optimistic time a: This represents the minimum reasonable period of time during which the activity can be completed.
There is only a small probability — typically assumed to be less than 1 percent — that this can be achieved. Record the most likely time m: This is the time required to complete an activity based on typical conditions and historical information. Since m would be the time thought most likely to be met, it is also the mode of the beta distribution.
Record the pessimistic time b: This is the maximum reasonable period of time the activity would need to be completed. Again, this is only a small probability — typically less than 1 percent.
This information should be gathered from those people on the project team who will perform the activity. This example uses time, but the steps can also be applied to cost or work effort.
With the three estimates, practitioners can calculate the expected time, or weighted average of an activity, and a probability estimate of a completion time for the entire project. As the equation shows, the variance is the square of one-sixth of the difference between the two extreme optimistic and pessimistic time estimates.
The greater the difference is between these extremes, the larger the variance. For example, assume a task has the following estimated durations: Beta Distribution of Time Example Because variance is a squared quantity, it is difficult to interpret. In this example, the standard deviation is 2.
The optimistic schedule is 12 weeks, the most likely schedule is 16 weeks, and the pessimistic schedule is 26 weeks. Using the three-point estimation technique, we calculate the expected time of 17 weeks — slightly longer than the most likely estimate.Computational detection and understanding of empathy is an important factor in advancing human-computer interaction.
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f) Determine the probability that the project will be finished in 80 days.
g) Determine the probability that the project will be finished in 90 days. Getting . 2 Weeks Pregnant, What Symptoms to Expect at 2 Weeks Pregnant.
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ClassZone Book Finder. Follow these simple steps to find online resources for your book. The annual bulletin Employment and Wages contains employment and wage data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program aggregated by industry at the national, state, and county levels.
This web-only publication, Employment and Wages Online, is the successor to the annual print.